Evaluating Lindsey’s Vikings Predictions and Making More

If you are a Vikings fan you have to be enjoying this season as Minnesota sits atop the division with a 2 game lead, the Vikings have beaten the Packers twice and the team has suffered only one injury that has caused a key player to miss more than one game. Further reason to smile, the team comes out of the bye against the Detroit Lions. Yes, life is pretty good in Viking land.

Before the season began, I offered 5 predictions for the men in purple from the NFC North. As the Vikings have no game this week and I have been really enjoying the season the past two weeks it seemed like a good time to dust off what I said at the beginning of the season to evaluate my crystal ball gazing skills and to offer a few more predictions.

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Minnesota Vikings Survive Baltimore Ravens 33-31, Despite Poor Clock Management

As brilliant as the Vikings have been recently in their ability to score in the first quarter, they have been as simple in their attempts to manage the clock and score in the fourth quarter to finish off their opponents.

On the last play of the game, Baltimore Ravens kicker Steven Hauschka missed a 44-yard field goal wide left.  The Vikings had won their second game of the season within the last two seconds of the game.

 The Vikings stand 6-0 and are one of only four remaining unbeaten teams in the NFL.   Ordinarily players on a team that is 6-0 would be ear to ear with smiles in their post game interviews.

However, smiles were scant in the locker room.  After all the Ravens had scored 21 points against the Vikings defense in the fourth quarter and had marched down the field to position themselves to kick the game winning field goal.

All of the Vikings knew that they were fortunate to escape with their sixth win after their fourth quarter collapse.

The Vikings stood at 14-0 at the end of the first quarter.  The game should have been over given the experience of the defense and the weapons on the offense.   Yet, ultimately the game was decided by the Ravens field goal kicker.

The main reason for the Vikings collapse was due to poor tackling in the second half.  Ravens running backs and receivers ran over, through and around the linebackers and secondary of the Vikings. 

Part of the explanation for the lacking of tackling by the Vikings is attributable to injuries. All-Pro Antoine Winfield left the game with a toe injury in the second quarter and nickel back Benny Sapp missed most of the second half feeling the effects of a helmet to helmet hit.   

While Winfield and Sapp are key players, the Vikings can’t afford the drop off in execution when one or both of them are not in the game. The Vikings will likely be shopping for some secondary help before the trade deadline.

The most disturbing part of the Vikings collapse against the Ravens however was the self-inflicted wound brought about by their play calling in the fourth quarter. 

Before criticizing the Vikings execution in the fourth quarter, lavish praise for the play calling of the Vikings and what they have recently been able to do in the first quarter is due.  In their past three games, the Vikings have scored five touchdowns with the six possessions that they have had in the first quarter. 

Against the Ravens, the Vikings deftly kept the Ravens guessing mixing up their runs and passes early in the game.  On the first drive the Vikings had three running plays and three passes; on their second drive they had three running plays and four passes.  Favre even mixed up his passing targets as he went to five different receivers in the first two drives of the game.

Clearly, the Vikings coaching staff is able to identify weaknesses in their opponents defensive schemes and design and successfully implement an initial offensive game plan.

In watching the Vikings last two home games, Vikings fans had to wonder why their coaching staff wasn’t as effective in the fourth quarter in generating points and managing the clock.  Yes, the last two home games .

The Vikings almost squandered a 30-14 fourth quarter lead against Green Bay three weeks ago.  At the beginning of the fourth quarter, the Vikings stopped using play action and went to simple trap plays.

The Packers took advantage of the gift scoring a touchdown with 3:40 in the fourth quarter to bring the score to 30-20.  The Vikings recovered the ensuing onside kick at the Green Bay 45-yard line. 

At this point, if the Vikings can get a first down or two the game is over.  Two first downs and the Vikings will have drained the Packers of their time outs, they can kick a field goal within Ryan Longwell’s range, and they leave the Packers without enough time to tie the game.

The Vikings go conservative and are content simply to run the ball on the first two downs to exhaust the Packers timeouts.  On third down, the Vikings run a flag route resulting in an incomplete pass. 

The flag route was not disguised in anyway.  There was no fake pitch to the running back to bring the safety up. 

A stop and go route would have at least given Favre an opportunity to sneak a pass in using a pump fake.  Once the receiver demonstrated that he couldn't run pass the corner back, Favre threw the ball harmlessly out of bounds.

The Vikings possession gave them no opportunity to add any points, lasted all of 29 seconds and allowed the Packers to use the two minute warning as an additional time out.  

The Packers being gracious guests accepted the gift and marched down for a field goal.   While the Packers had no timeouts left they were now within seven points of the Vikings preparing to kick an onside kick. 

Disaster was avoided when the Vikings recovered the on-side kick.

Against the Ravens it was déjà vu all over again.

The Vikings had the ball the on the Ravens 18 yard line with 2:51 in the game.  At the time, the Ravens were winning the game at 31-30.  The Ravens had two timeouts remaining.

The Vikings clearly wanted to have the Ravens use all their time outs and wanted to run down the clock as much as possible to leave the Ravens with only a few seconds to score.

The most pressing need for the Vikings was to score and to take the lead as they were behind.   Preferably the Vikings would score a touchdown as a field goal would leave the Ravens the opportunity to win the game with their own field goal.

The Vikings with the ball on the Ravens 18 went ultra-conservative. The Vikings pounded the ball up the middle with three straight Adrian Peterson runs gaining four yards.  The Vikings were clearly content with Baltimore calling their remaining two timeouts and having Ryan Longwell kick a 31-yard field goal to give them a two-point lead.

After the kickoff, Baltimore started their final possession at the 33-yard line with 1:46 left in the game.  The strategy worked for the Vikings.

However, the three running plays called by the Vikings at Baltimore’s 18-yard line appeared to be playing not to lose as opposed to the Vikings playing to win the game.

The Vikings didn’t need to call a flea flicker or a double reverse on the 18-yard line, but they should have at least called one play that was some type of play-action or bootleg for Favre. 

If the play works the Vikings have a chance to score a touchdown or at the very least run more time off the clock as they would have obtained a first down.   

The Vikings defense had not stopped the Ravens from moving the ball in the second half.  Scoring a touchdown on the Ravens would have at least forced the Ravens to go for the entire length of the field to take the lead.   

Yes, calling such a play is dangerous in that there is a chance for an interception.  However, the benefits far outweigh the minimal risk.

Favre has 12 touchdowns to only two interceptions and had not made a bad throw in the game.  Worst case, Favre takes a knee for a five-yard loss if he sees nothing open.  Longwell’s kick is a little longer but it is still a relatively easy 36-yard field goal.

The chance of success on play action with a pass was not insignificant.  The Vikings scored three touchdowns against the Ravens in the red zone.  All three touchdowns came on pass plays.  The Vikings final touchdown pass of the day by Favre came after he faked a pitch to Peterson.

Sometimes you win by playing it safe.  The Vikings won by playing it safe on Sunday as the Ravens missed the field goal as time expired. 

However, sometimes playing it safe allows your opponent an opportunity to beat you; and sometimes they are willing to oblige. The Vikings need to stop being such gracious hosts as they have the talent to have the route to the Super Bowl go through the Metrodome.

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Minnesota Vikings Win 38-10; Coach Brad, Is This The Kick Ass Offense?

Coach Brad Childress' offensive play calling over his first three years at the helm of the Vikings has been unimaginative, too conservative and worst of all . . . utterly predictable.  

When Childress came to Minnesota he boasted that his offensive scheme was a “kick-ass offense.” Vikings fans were giddy over the prospect of seeing the purple post numbers similar to when Randy Moss and Chris Carter were catching passes from Randall Cunningham and Daunte Culpepper.

Instead fans saw simple running plays up the middle and too often saw short passes designed for receivers to earn a first down by fighting for yards after the catch.   

The Vikings offense finished 12^th overall in the NFL last year.  The finish for the offensive unit was especially underwhelming given that the team boasted the league leading rusher in Adrian Peterson.

Expectations for this year were high with the addition of Brett Favre and Percy Harvin.  The offense point total has not disappointed with the Vikings scoring at least 27 points in each game this year.   

The play calling this year however has occasionally been reminiscent of the past—too conservative and too predictable.  Case in point, the fourth quarter playing calling by the Vikings on Monday Night against Green Bay during Week Four allowed the Packers to get back in the game.

Going into the St. Louis Rams game this weekend, fans were curious to see if the Vikings would unveil their kick ass offense or revert back to their old playing calling ways. 

In evaluating the Vikings play calling against the Rams, fans were left with mixed emotions.  There was nothing really imaginative about the plays called.  Yet, the Vikings did mix up their play  calling enough to keep the Rams guessing.

Simple Plays

The running game was pure vanilla ice cream without a hint of syrup.  The Vikings did not a run a single counter trap for Peterson or Chester Taylor. 

The Vikings were content to go straight ahead running primarily behind All-Pro Steve Hutchinson and Bryant McKinnie.  The result was a very pedestrian 89 yards on 24 carries.  The longest run of the day was 15 yards by Peterson.

The passing game was a little more exotic; imagine an additional scoop of chocolate or strawberry ice cream.

The Vikings really used only four passing plays to dissect the Rams secondary.

First, the Vikings ran their play action with a naked bootleg to perfection all day. 

During their first series, Favre hit a wide open Harvin who subsequently broke tackles down field on his way to a 24 yard gain.  Peterson then took the ball into the end zone on the next play.

During the second series of the second quarter, Favre again hooked up with Harvin on the same play for a nice 19 yard gain.  The Vikings subsequently kicked a field goal.

Second, the Vikings used the screen pass to take advantage of the aggressiveness of the Rams defense.   Favre hit Peterson and Visanthe Shiancoe for gains of 9 and 11 yards respectively.

The Vikings quarterback who used the play most effectively however was Tarvaris Jackson.

The Rams sought to rattle Jackson with blitzes in hopes of an interception that they could take to the house to get themselves back in the game.  

On a 3^rd down and 1 at the Vikings 29 yard line, the Rams came with a blitz. Jackson very patiently waited for a screen to develop for his Fullback Naufahu Tahi.   Tahi welcomed the spotlight and went rumbling down field for a 32 yard gain. 3 plays later with the ball on the Rams 36 yard line, the Vikings were faced with a 3^rd down and 7.  The Rams expecting Jackson to drop back came up the middle the hard.

The Vikings guessed correctly by calling a center screen for Chester Taylor.  Again, Jackson patiently dropped back and waited for defense to sell out.  Jackson saw the fruits of his patience as Taylor took the screen 33 yards down to the Rams 3.

Third, when the Rams were in zone coverage the Vikings would hit their second receiver after sending their first receiver through the zone as a decoy.

The beneficiaries of this play were Shiancoe and Taylor.  Favre’s value to the Vikings is likely most evident on this play because of his early recognition of the zone defense at the line and his willingness to not to lock on to one receiver.

The best example of this play was the Vikings touchdown pass to Shiancoe in the third quarter.  

The Vikings were in the red zone at the Rams 13 yard line.  The Vikings sent a player in motion; the player was a decoy and it appeared sending him  in  motion had its intended effect of getting the Rams attention.

Favre did not give the play away by locking on to Shiancoe.  Instead as soon as Shiancoe broke open, Favre turned, fired, and hit him in stride preventing the Rams defenders from putting a hand on Shiancoe.

In fairness to the Vikings coaching staff, they probably didn’t open up their playbook to keep their next three opponents in the dark. 

Predictable

While the plays were simple, the Vikings did a good job mixing things up to keep the Rams guessing.

Peterson had not gained more than 100 yards in his past 3 games.  Last year, everyone would have expected the Vikings to hand off the ball to Peterson early and often.

Instead, the Vikings threw the Rams a curve ball by starting with a pass to Sidney Rice followed up with short screen pass to Peterson. 

The message sent by the Vikings is a good message to the Rams and the League. 

In passing to Rice, the Vikings are stating that they feel confident beating teams with their passing game. 

The screen pass to Peterson says he can no longer  be thought of as only a threat to run the ball.  Last year, Peterson had 21 receptions whereas after 5 games this year Peterson has already hauled in 10 catches.

On their second series, the Vikings increased their lead to 14-0 by virtue of Jared Allen taking a fumble into the end zone.

The series starts on the Vikings 34.  Last year, the Vikings would have been content to slowly grind the ball with running plays.

This year, the Vikings stayed aggressive with a pass play.  Unfortunately, Favre was sacked as Tahi failed to pick up a blitz.   Chester Taylor gained 7 yards on the next play with a run.

In his first year, Childress would have probably gone with a running play.  This year, Favre throws a deep skinny flag route to Harvin.  Harvin is behind the defender and it appears that it would be a 40 yard play for the Vikings but Harvin can’t hold on to the ball.

Good call, Coach.  Why not go for the early knock-out punch—you are up 14-0 and you are on the road.  If Harvin catches the ball, the fight in the Rams and their fans might have left at halftime.  Bags on the heads of the remaining fans would probably have followed.

Most fans probably don’t feel that the Vikings offense is a kick ass offense.  The only pass that was beyond 30 yards that was not a screen pass was Favre's 47 yard pass to Sidney Rice pictured above.

While the Vikings are not as explosive as Moss and Company,the Vikings offense might just be good enough to get the job done if they can continue to keep defenses guessing as to their next move.

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An Honest Assessment of the Minnesota Vikings After the Monday Night Showdown

Coach Jon Gruden loves Bret Favre more than coach John Madden almost to the point where a restraining order might be necessary.   We now know that if given a chance Gruden would welcome the opportunity to coach Favre again.

I can’t ever remember an analyst bringing his favorite film from practice sessions in effort to praise a player.   I only hope for Gruden’s sake that if he did not own the film of Favre throwing deep in practice he acquired the film through the proper channels.

OK, besides Gruden's affection for Favre, we know that while the Vikings have enough talent to make it to the Super Bowl they might not be the best team in the NFC.

If you are Viking fan you saw several things on Monday night to make you salivate over the possibilities of watching football in February.  However, if you are a NFC playoff contender, or Dennis Green, you aren’t likely ready to crown them. 

Quarterback

Favre’s physical gifts have not diminished as he still has zip on the slants and out routes.  He can throw the ball downfield with authority and can get the ball into his receiver in a two deep zone. 

More importantly, Favre has brought leadership to the team and it is apparent in post game interviews that the youngsters on the team are feeding off of his confidence.

The two questions concerning Favre are whether he is durable enough to last the entire season and can he play well in inclement weather.  Neither of these questions has been answered. 

We will however know more after Favre faces the gauntlet of Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Green Bay starting on week six.

Wide Receivers

The Vikings receivers have made several big plays and are doing a very good job of getting yards after the catch.  Rookie Percy Harvin has especially been impressive avoiding and breaking tackles.   Sidney Rice appears to be poised for a break-out season.

Bernard Berrian however still does not look healthy.  Berrian’s 31 yard touchdown catch against the Packers was due to a mental lapse by the secondary and not his speed. 

While Harvin and Rice have looked very good, the Vikings need Berrian to contribute to have a consistent passing attack. 

Running Attack

The best running back in the NFL is Adrian Peterson and pairing him with Chester Taylor gives the Vikings the best tandem in the league.   Yes, Peterson’s fumble on MNF was disheartening but the organization is unlikely to trade him anytime soon.  Taylor has done a good job doing whatever the team needs and Favre has been smart to publicly show his appreciation for Chester’s efforts.

As much talent that Peterson and Taylor have, they still need the offensive line to create some daylight.   

 
Offensive Line

The best that can be said about the offensive line is that their play has been inconsistent. 

Against the Cleveland Browns, Favre was sacked four times and was hurried several times.  The Lions pass rush put Favre to the turf on three occasions and made sure he was not lonely on several occasions.  Throw in a couple of holding penalties and Coach Childress was ready for aspirin for his headache.

On Monday Night, the offensive line was Houdini like in making the Packers pass rushers completely disappear.  Even more impressive was that the offensive line was not called for holding. 

Steve Hutchinson saw limited time in practice this week with pain in his low back.  If Hutchinson misses significant time the offensive line will not be able to continue the trend established against Green Bay and the running lanes will be greatly decrease.

Run Defense

Teams have had more success rushing the ball up the middle against the Vikings this year.  Currently, the run defense is ranked ninth after leading the league last year.  No need however to hit the panic button just yet because the “fall” to the ninth spot means the Vikings are only giving up an additional 12.5 yards a game on the ground.

Teams playing the Vikings going forward will not likely abandon trying to run the ball up the middle.   The next three games for the Vikings may reveal if the run defense is slipping as the Vikings face teams committed to running the ball in the Rams, Ravens and Steelers. 

Expect the Vikings run defense to step up their play as the unit is still among the very best in the league.

Pass Defense

Statistically, the Vikings pass defense has improved from last year as they are currently ranked 12th in the league as opposed to 18th in the league from last year.  Again, no need to go completely overboard with champagne as the spike in ranking equates to holding opponents to 5.3 fewer yards a game.

Cedric Griffin has done a good job with extra attention he receives player corner opposite All Pro Antoine Winfield.   Griffin has already grabbed two interceptions; he has five over his four-year career.

One glaring need to address in the passing game is figuring out how to defend passes over the middle.  Against Green Bay, the Vikings gave up six passing plays over 20 yards.  Five of the six big passing plays over 20 yards were on throws over the middle.   

Strong safety Tyrell Johnson and free safety Madieu Williams need to make more plays. 

Special Teams

The Special Teams play has improved from last year.  Coverage squads are doing a better job of staying in their lanes and not over committing early.

Punter Chris Kluwe continues to punt well with two coffin corner kicks against Green Bay.  Ryan Longwell is six for seven with his only miss coming from beyond 40 yards.

Harvin and Darius Raynaud have now made Viking opponents worry about their special teams’ coverage.

The Vikings have turned the corner on their special team problems from last year.

Looking Forward to this Weekend

The Vikings should roll over the St. Louis Rams this weekend as the Rams got stomped on by the San Francisco 49ers 35-0 last week and it does not look like their starting quarterback is going to be able to play. Right?

Well, a couple of reasons that the game could be a close hard fought battle:

1. The Vikings are emotionally spent after beating the Packers for their new leader.

2. Rams offensive tackles Alex Barron and Jason Smith are expected to play after missing last week’s game.

3. The Vikings are looking ahead to Baltimore and Pittsburgh instead of focusing in on the Rams.

4. Rams strong safety Craig Dahl and cornerback Ron Bartell return to the lineup to shore up the defense.

5. The Vikings coaching staff will outsmart themselves and allow the Rams to stay in the game.

A poor showing by the Vikings against the Rams will suggest that the Vikings aren’t quite ready to compete with the New York Giants and New Orleans Saints.

However, if the Vikings put the Rams away early it will be a sign that they are a serious Super Bowl contenders as they are clearly focused on getting to Miami.  

Expect the Vikings to join the Giants and Saints as the elite teams in the NFC.

 

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Viking Fans, Calm Down and Enjoy The Season . . .

Enjoy the season. 

Despite a 3-0 start, many Viking fans do not believe that the purple have a realistic chance to make the playoffs.  They characterize the Vikings play against the Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions as uninspired.  Many feel that the San Francisco 49ers gave the Vikings last Sunday’s game as a gift and that Minnesota is really at best a mediocre 2-1 team.

When he was at the helm several years ago, Coach Mike Tice in a press conference told Viking fans to calm down and enjoy the season.   Where are you Coach Tice when we need you to calm the troops?

Viking fans would do well to heed the advice of the Tice and calm down and enjoy what unfolds during the year.

Below is a look at some of grumblings that I overheard this week about the Vikings and the merits of the complaints.

The team doesn’t have the killer instinct of a Super Bowl contender . . .

The Vikings opened the 2009 season against the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions.  Last year, the Browns struggled to win 4 games last year and the Lions went the distance without a win.  Both teams hired new head coaches and both decided to start the season with quarterbacks who had little to no NFL experience.  It is difficult to imagine better sacrificial lambs for a team with Super Bowl aspirations.

However, instead of quickly dispatching the Browns and Lions, the Vikings fell behind both teams before waking up in time to put away both teams in the second half.

The doubters poured water over the excitement of the 49ers victory by pointing out that the key play was not Favre to Lewis with 2 seconds left.  No, they say the key play was when 49ers Dre Bly dropped the gift wrapped interception the play before that should have ended the game.

While, the Vikings have not “crushed” any of their first three opponents that does not mean that they don’t have the right killer instinct to make it to Miami. 

Last year’s Super Bowl Champions the Pittsburgh Steelers struggled to put away the Cleveland Browns in week 2 by a score of 10-6.  Yes, those Browns that managed only 4 wins last season.  The next week the Steelers lost to the Philadelphia Eagles 15-6 with their leading rusher Willie Parker getting only 20 yards on 13 carriers.

The 2008 Super Bowl Champions New York Giants started the season with losses to Dallas (45-35) and Green Bay (35-13).  The Giants even stumbled late in the season against the Tarvaris Jackson led Vikings 41-17 during week 11.

Super Bowl contending teams don’t crush every team that they play and they even have occasional bumps in the road.  Super Bowl contenders play more consistently throughout the year and make fewer mistakes than their opponents.

Are the Vikings Super Bowl bound?  Is there any team this year that is a lock to make it to Miami?  No.  The field is wide open to several teams.   We do know however that the Vikings have played more consistently.  The Vikings have made fewer mistakes as they are +4 on turnovers.  Minnesota is on the short list of contenders.   

Favre is ready to implode with a flurry of interceptions, he can’t lead the Vikings to the promise land . . .

While Favre is being paid handsomely at $12 million a year, the Vikings are not looking for him to win games for them by passing early and often.   Rather, the Vikings are calling upon Favre to make the right decisions on offense and to understand that he doesn’t have to win by the game by himself.  

Favre has accepted the challenge.  Favre has recognized blitzes and made the right read.   While not every pass has resulted in positive yardage the right play is being executed. 

Favre has not forced the action in the first three games.  He has even allowed himself to be sacked and he has thrown passes away as opposed to trying to thread the needle.   In three games, Favre has five touchdowns against only one interception.

Despite his early success, the Vikings faithful are wondering when Favre is going to abandon the recipe for success and stretch the defenses of opponents such that 300 yard games become commonplace.

No one should expect that Favre is going to pass for 300 yards every time he goes out.  Favre is clearly not the spry young gunslinger he was 10 years ago.  He is now the crafty veteran who is just as likely to beat you with his mind as he is to beat you with his strong arm.

Vikings fans should sit back and enjoy the last (or latest?) encore of Brett’s career.  He may no longer be a fantasy football league stud, but Favre can still play at a high level in the NFL.   Favre has a better quarterback rating than the young gunslingers Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Phillip Rivers and even league glamour boy Tom Brady. 

What Favre needs to continue to bring to the table for the Vikings is his leadership, enthusiasm and attitude.   One of the small things the coaching staff has impressed upon the players is the willingness to do some “work.” The Vikings staff is looking for players to do “work” beyond their initial assignment and go down field to try and throw another block.

The play of the game for Favre against the 49ers was not his throw to Lewis for the go ahead touchdown (or the near interception to Bly).  The play of the game was when Favre did some “work” by running down the field more than 30 yards from the line of scrimmage to throw a block for Bernard Berrian on All – Pro Linebacker Patrick Willis. 

The Vikings needed a leader this season on the offensive side of the ball.  Plays like the block for Berrian are infectious.  Everyone needs to do work regardless of what he has accomplished in the past.  The tone has been set by Favre.

Understanding that there is no need to force the action, skills that are still among the best and now you add the intangible of leadership . . . Favre might just be what the Vikings need to take them to the next level.

Special Teams continues to be their Achilles Heel . . .

The Vikings have already given up two touchdowns on special teams this year.  The ghost of Reggie Bush embarrassing the Vikings last year has begun to haunt the Viking fans.

The first touchdown surrendered by the Vikings was a 67 yard punt return to Cleveland’s Joshua Cribbs.  The second touchdown occurred in the closing minutes of the first half of last week’s game when Nate Clements of the 49ers scooped up a blocked field goal and returned it 59 yards.  

The play with Clements should not have happened.  However, kudos to San Francisco in that they understood that Rookie Offensive Tackle Phil Loadholt might be vulnerable.  Don’t worry; I am going to Loadholt in a minute.

While, the Special Teams have given up two big plays - the reality is that the play of special teams of the Vikings has improved.  Coverage teams are doing a better job of staying put in their lanes.

First, Cribbs is not your average punt returner.  Cribbs is considered by many to be one of the best return specialists in the AFC.   Cribbs represented the AFC in the pro bowl as a return specialist in 2008.

Second, the Vikings now have real threats to score on special teams.  Percy Harvin returned a kickoff 101 yards against the 49ers.  Harvin has a legitimate chance to make the Pro Bowl as a kick returner.  Darius Reynaud has also done very well returning punts and it is only a matter of time before he takes one the distance.

Third and most importantly, the Vikings have won the battle of field position as the special teams units on kicks/punts returned have gained more yardage than their opponents. 

The Browns averaged 23 yards on their kick returns and 22 yards on their punt returns; the Vikings averaged 33 yards and 27 yards.

The Lions averaged 16 yards on their kick returns and 7 yards on their punt returns; the Vikings averaged 3o yards and 13 yards.

The 49ers averaged 23 yards on their kick returns and only 6 yards on their punt returns; the Vikings averaged 45 yards and 11 yards. 

That’s right, Harvin is giving the Vikings at least 30 yards of field position when he touches the ball on kick-offs. 

The Special Teams play is still a work in progress but clearly things have improved from last year for the special teams unit.

The Offensive Line is not good enough . . .

Despite having the best running back in the game in Adrian Peterson, the Vikings running game has struggled the past two weeks.  The offensive line simply has not consistently created enough running lanes. Favre’s consecutive game starting streak is in jeopardy as he has been pummeled by defensive linemen the past three weeks. 

Center John Sullivan is getting battered as a piñata.  Why did we get rid of Matt Birk? Loadholt has already picked up bad habits from Left Tackle Bryant McKinnie in being too upright and slow on passing plays. 

Loadholt and Sullivan have also collected holding penalties at inopportune times.  Adding insult to injury, Loadholt picked up a holding penalty on play his man still managed to put Favre into the turf.

When you want to get to Favre in a hurry, you blitz over Loadholt and Sullivan. Offensive coordinator Darrel Bevel has tried to slow the rush of the defense by sprinkling in center screens and screens on the right side of the ball.  Unfortunately, the inexperience of Sullivan and Loadholt can’t be completely disguised. 

It is undeniable that the weakest links among all of the Viking starters are Loadholt and Sullivan.   I see these two players as the Vikings Achilles Heel.  Fortunately, it is a long season and the Viking faithful must hope that the play of Loadholt and Sullivan will improve by the end of the year.  

If the Vikings don’t make it to Miami it will be because the offensive line was taken to the proverbial woodshed for a good old-fashioned spanking.  Week 6 against Baltimore followed by Week 7 against Pittsburgh will be tough midterm exams for Loadholt and Sullivan.

The ride for the Vikings won’t always be smooth as there will likely losses along the way.  Does Favre have enough magic left? Will the Special Teams continue to improve upon what they have started this season?  Can Sullivan and Loadholt mature over the year such that they are no longer seen as the weakest link?

The Vikings clearly have enough talent to contend for Miami and make this year a memorable season for all of the right reasons.   

Viking fans . . . “Enjoy the Season.”

 

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Will Vikings Be Exposed Against Dangerous Lions?

The Minnesota Vikings are playing a dangerous team in the Detroit Lions.  The Lions are dangerous because they have lost their last 18 games and are valiantly trying not to be known as the franchise with the longest losing streak in NFL history.

Last year the Lions played the Vikings extremely well.  The Lions staff in reviewing film this week will be able to motivate the team to play hard against Minnesota.  The Lions very easily could have beaten the Vikings twice last year.

In Week six last year, the Vikings squeezed by with a 12-10 win.  Minnesota took advantage of a questionable pass interference call just before the two-minute warning to kick a late game winning field goal. 

The second game was also a nail bitter.   At the 5:53 mark, former Viking Daunte Culpepper hit Calvin Johnson on a 13-yard pass to the Vikings eight yard line.  Coach Childress challenged the play resulting in the play getting reversed.  The Lions then had to settle for a field goal instead of a touchdown that would have given them the lead.

The Vikings, guarding a 17-16 lead at the 5:44 mark went on a 10 play drive culminating in a 50-yard field goal by Ryan Longwell.  The drive left the Lions with only 22 seconds to drive the entire length of the field.

The drive last season was memorable because the Vikings were somehow able to survive fumbling the ball twice yet avoid turning the ball over to the Lions. 

This week’s game against the Detroit Lions will say a lot about how serious we should take the Vikings Super Bowl aspirations.   If the 2009 Vikings come out flat against the Lions, questions will be raised about whether GM Rick Spielman has assembled a team that can get to Miami. 

Hopefully, this week all experiments with an on-side kick to start the game are over.  The Lions, similar to the Cleveland Browns, are a weak team that will have difficulty being able to sustain a long drive.   The risk of giving up a cheap field goal to the Lions on a short field and allowing their fans to get going far outweighs trying an on-side kick. 

Assuming the Vikings don’t outsmart themselves with too many trick plays, I expect that the Vikings will beat the Lions in the same way they beat the Browns. 

The Lions do not have a strong run game.  The Lions rushed the ball 20 times against the New Orleans Saints for a measly 33 yards.  Kevin Smith, the Lions leading rusher, had only 20 yards on 15 carries.  Ouch!  Expect Smith to run into additional resistance as the Vikings effectively disguise their run defense to confuse Rookie Matt Stafford.

While most fans were fixated, and rightly so, on the performance of Adrian Peterson, All-Pro Antoine Winfield played a great game that was overshadowed. Winfield smothered any attempts to throw on his side of the field. 

When the Browns did throw the ball his way, Winfield made them pay the old fashioned way.  One Brown who found out how hard Winfield tackles is Running Back James Davis.  Davis, who earlier in the week survived a car accident unscathed, left the game with a shoulder injury after smashing into Winfield.

Earlier this year, I predicted that Jared Allen could have a break-out season for sacks if he got off to a good start against the Browns and Lions.  After week one it looks like I should have identified Ray Edwards for having a big year after he put Quinn into the turf twice. Expect Allen to get a lot of attention from the Lions offensive line and for Edwards to be in Stafford’s face for most of the day. 

Unfortunately, the defensive line may not get more than one or two sacks this week.  Stafford did a good job getting the ball away quickly and avoiding the rush of the Saints last week.  Stafford was sacked only once; he did however throw three interceptions.  Cedric Griffin must be ready to pick off any errant throws as the defensive line of the Vikings will keep up the pressure this week.

While Adrian Peterson is well on his way to 2,000 yards with 180 yards last week, Vikings fans should temper their expectations for this week and be happy with a solid 100 yard effort from Peterson. 

Last year, Peterson ran for more than 150 yards in a game on three occasions.  The following week after running for more than 150 yards, Peterson failed to rush for 100 yards.

Detroit also did a good job not allowing Peterson to run wild.  Peterson gained 111 yards on 25 carries in his first game and 105 yards in 22 carries in his second game.  Peterson will likely post similar numbers unless he breaks a long 50-plus yard run.

Expect the Lions to say again to the Vikings offense in 2009 that if you are going to beat us, you are going to have to do it by passing the ball.  The Vikings should have no problem accepting the challenge.

The intriguing question this week is not whether Brett Favre throws for 3, 4 or 5 touchdowns.  The intriguing question is whether Coach Childress will continue to allow Favre to change plays at the line of scrimmage.

In a post game interview, Coach Childress acknowledged that Favre called a couple of audibles during the game and that it was likely that Favre’s action resulted in a better outcome for the Vikings.   The look on Coach Childress’ face at the post game conference however suggested that he was not completely comfortable with the idea of his veteran quarterback changing plays.

Hopefully, I misread Coach Childress.  If not, hopefully Coach Childress will get comfortable with Favre changing plays.  Favre is making $12 million dollars a year and at that salary the Vikings have to be paying him for using his knowledge of the game.

Coach Childress can always take comfort in knowing that it could be worse.  His long snapper could be calling for a fake punt on 3rd and 11 from his 26-yard line in the fourth quarter.  Chicago Bears Coach Lovie Smith must still be having nightmares.

 I expect that the Vikings long snapper will not call any fake punts on his own and that the Vikings will beat the Lions handily to put the NFC on notice that the Vikings intend to be playing for the right to go to the Super Bowl.

 

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2009 Minnesota Vikings Are Primed for Miami

The pieces are in place for the Minnesota Vikings to have a season to remember. On both sides of the ball, the team is strong. Special team play while still somewhat of a question mark has even shown signs of improvement.

Viking fans are in store for a treat this season as several players and the team is poised to break records and play for the Lombardi trophy in Miami in 2010. How the 2009 season shapes up for key players and the team -

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Super Bowl Bandwagon Gains Momentum As Vikings Mess With Texans

This just in: The Minnesota Vikings will be very good this year and are on the short list of teams with a legitimate shot to win the Super Bowl. 

 

While the proposition that the Vikings will be good this year is not a stretch given that their 10-6 record last year, the second statement likely has all but the heartiest of Viking fans laughing out loud.   

 

However, this year no one is laughing at the idea that the Vikings will be playing for the Lombardi trophy. No doubt a few more fans jumped on the bandwagon tonight as the Vikings played well against the Houston Texans. While emotions must be kept in check while watching preseason football, the Vikings did many things right on offense against the Texans, suggesting a long playoff run is in the cards. 

 

First, it starts with the top.

 

No, not Brett Favre.

 

We're talking about Brad Childress. While there were moments last year that coach Childress showed emotion on the sideline, Coach Chili looked too often like a man who was hoping that the game would end before something bad happened. Tonight, Childress was running up and down as if he were a little kid, or at least Pete Carroll at USC. I guess that is what happens to coaches when you have so many playmakers on your team—it is hard to contain your excitement.

 

Speaking of Favre, the league's Most Reviled Player looked sharp at the quarterback position. Most analysts and writers suggesting Favre is not the answer noted he couldn’t deliver for a Jets team last season with similiar, if not better personnel than the Vikings. 

 

Favre may fail in Minnesota, but the suggestion that Favre’s situation with the Jets was similar to his present situation with the Vikings is ridiculous. The two-headed running tandem of Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor is vastly superior to the Jets' running "attack," if you're generous enough to call it that.

 

While the numbers put up by the Jets' receivers were better than the Vikings last year, the talent of the Vikings receiving corps is better than the Jets. Now that we've added Percy Harvin, the edge clearly lies with the Vikings. Considerring the Vikings play the Lions twice and the Jets have to play the Patriots twice, Favre’s situation is clearly better in Minnesota.

 

Favre demonstrated he is ready to make the best of his situation with the Vikings. After enjoying watching Adrian Peterson scamper 75 yards for a touchdown on the first play of the very first series, Favre went to work slowly picking apart the Texans with screen passes and short passes over the middle. Favre's passes were coming out early and in front of the receiver, allowing for yards to be made after the catch.

 

During a play in the second series, Favre patiently went through his progression and, after side-stepping a defender attempting to make a sack, passed to Shiancoe over the middle for a first down. Favre later put a nice touch pass on the hands of rookie Percy Harvin in the end zone, which was unfortunately dropped. 

 

No problem.

 

Later in the half, Favre bought time in the pocket and found Harvin over the middle.  Harvin broke two tackles and picked up eight yards after the catch, earning a hearty slap on his backside from the grey-bearded veteran.

 

Favre finished the first half with a screen pass to Chester Taylor. He didn’t panic, just waited until the defense was firmly on the hook before delivering the pass to Taylor in the flat. The play was nothing special, but it is a play that teams who are serious about playing in January execute on a consistent basis. Taylor made a nice move on the sideline and took it to the house. 

 

The play underscores the difficulty of defending against the Vikings. Favre loves the screen pass and is happy to find the receiver in the flat—just ask Ahman Green. Hutchinson, a Pro Bowl lineman, can get out in front and create gaping holes.

 

Pick your poison. Anytime your defensive ends rush up the field, you'd better make sure it is not a screen to Peterson, Taylor, or Harvin or you might be bringing your offense on the field sooner than you would like. 

 

Not everything worked well for the Vikings against the Texans. Bryant McKinnie is still collecting too much laundry with untimely false start and holding penalties. The special teams play on kick-offs still needs work. After Taylor’s touchdown, the Texans were one block away from returning the kickoff for a touchdown. The Texans capitalized on the miscue with a field goal before the end of the half. 

 

Some of the play calling seemed puzzling. In the wildcat formation with Favre alone in the flat, Favre was asked to make a block for Harvin. Favre picked up a penalty for an illegal block leading with his surgically repaired shoulder. I’m not an offensive coordinator, but I don’t think that we will see that play with Favre again this season. If we don’t see that play and Favre stays healthy, the Vikings could well find themselves playing in January. 

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