Preseason Picks for NFL All-Pro: NFC, Pt. 2 (Defense and Special Teams)

This a follow-up to “Preseason Picks for NFL All-Pro: NFC, Pt. 1″, which focused on my predictions for the best offensive players in the NFC for 2009. If you have not read my offensive picks yet, here is the link: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/206809-preseason-picks-for-nfl-all-pro-nfc-part-1-offense. With that being said, it should not be a surprise that this slide will honor the top defensive and special teams players in the National Football Conference. It will be of a similar format to its predecessor, one player for every position on a standard defense.

NFC North: Betting NFL Season Win Totals

Over the next few weeks, I will preview each NFL division from an Over/Under season win total perspective.  All totals and odds to win division courtesy of Bowmans.com as current as the date the article is published. 

For additional division previews please find links at the bottom of this article for previews of the NFC South, NFC West and NFC East divisions.

 

Detroit:  5

By now the Lion’s 2008 season needs very little introduction. 0-16 was good enough for the NFL’s worst-ever record and almost by default this team can only get better. 

Not only did the Lions lose, and lose often last year, they often did it in ugly fashion. They gave up 517 points, had a negative 249 point differential, and ranked almost rock-bottom in most major statistical categories. 

One thing in Detroit’s favor was that, when things were all said and done, they had faced the league’s second toughest schedule, having faced opponents with a combined 143-113 record.

The theme for 2009 will be that of new faces and trying to create a winning culture for a franchise that has averaged less than five wins over the last five years and hasn’t even seen the .500 mark in eight years.  For Detroit’s sake, hopefully this year’s schedule will be more accommodating as it sets up as only the 21st toughest.

The new faces are plentiful, starting with a new GM in Martin Mayhew, as the Matt Millen era finally comes to an end, a new coach in Jim Schwartz and new offensive and defensive coordinators in Scott Linehan and Gunther Cunningham, respectively.

Mass changes were made on both sides of the ball in an attempt to overhaul the roster and give Schwartz some better parts to work with. 

Through the draft, the Lion’s nabbed three players who were arguably the best at their positions and could be starters on the team for years to come.  QB Matthew Stafford, TE Brandon Pettigrew and S Louis Delmas will most likely be counted on to contribute at some point this season and could be keys to the revival of this dormant franchise.

Maurice Morris will join Kevin Smith in the backfield and Bryant Johnson should line up opposite Calvin Johnson. 

Several potential backups along a marginal offensive line were added, but some such as Jon Jansen and Ephraim Salaam are on the wrong side of 30 and others like Tony Fonotiu haven’t played in the league since 2006. By and large, this group will look very similar to the unit which struggled to create space or time for the offense to operate in 2008.

The Lions’ defense, while hard-pressed to be much worse than they were in 2008, may actually have the potential to be the team’s strength in ’09.  For years, WLB Ernie Sims has struggled with sub-par talent around him, however this year he will be joined by Julian Peterson and Larry Foote, both productive starters in the past for the Seahawks and Steelers, respectively. 

The secondary has the potential to have three new starters come opening day if rookie Delmas gets a chance, as well as the additions of Phillip Buchanon from Tampa and Anthony Henry from Dallas.

One of the biggest and most glaring concerns for Detroit this year will be their defensive line.  This unit contributed to the 32nd ranking versus the rush and 31st ranking in generating sacks on opposing QBs.  While the LBs and secondary made several upgrades, this group remained mostly the same. 

The lone key addition is DT Grady Jackson, who is still serviceable, but will be 35 this year and could have trouble holding up for an entire season.  Should Jackson start, he will combine with fellow DT Chuck Darby to make half the starters on the line well over 30.  Darby will be 33.

While the Lions’ schedule is slated to be on the easier side this year, it’s by no means a walk in the park either.  The first five weeks will see Detroit play no team with worse than an 8-8 record from last year, including the Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers in Week Five. 

The schedule does lighten up after that, and the Lion’s will have the benefit of playing four teams who will be coming off a short week having played a Monday nighter.  Three of those games will be at Ford Field and three of them will take place during the last four weeks of the season, which could help the Lions finish strong.

The pieces are in place for a rebuilding process to begin, and Daunte Culpepper still has enough talent to manage this team until Stafford is ready to take the reins. 

It’s not often that even a five-win improvement from the season before would still not be enough to get over the posted win total, however tis’ the case with this year’s Lions.  Obviously Detroit won’t go 0-16 again and a four or five-win season seems very probable. 

Stranger things have happened and a strong second half to the season could push them over this win total.  However, this team had been far too bad, for far too long, for me to be confident trying to justify at least six wins for them this year.

Prediction:  Five seems about right, so if I had to I’d bet Under the total, but would prefer to wait and see if the number goes up at all before the season begins.

Chicago:  8.5

The Chicago Bears remained competitive throughout the 2008 year and were on their way to securing a playoff spot with three straight home wins in Weeks Fourteen to Sixteen.  However, when their playoff hopes came down to the final game of the year, they came up just short by losing in Houston 31-24.

By now, we know that Chicago made arguably the biggest splash this offseason by trading for disgruntled ex-Bronco QB Jay Cutler.  A lack of offense has been the achilles heel in Chicago for the past number of years, and passing attacks led by Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton have come up short in gaining Chicago elite status. 

Cutler brings with him all the tools necessary to revive an offense, however his new stomping ground won’t offer up nearly the quality of receiving options as the Broncos did.

Devin Hester has the speed to take advantage of Cutler’s cannon arm, however he has yet to prove he can be a consistent No. 1 receiving option, after making a name for himself as a returner.  Hester’s stat line read 51 catches for 665 yards and 3 touchdowns last year, hardly the kind of production you are looking for in a No. 1 wideout. 

TE Greg Olson has shown he can be dangerous but he alone won’t be enough. Should Cutler miss any time to injury, panic will rip through the Windy City, as there are no budding stars or wily veterans waiting in the wings as backups.

Cutler may have to take a back seat to the running game, as the Bears look to have a star for years to come with Matt Forte.  In only his rookie season, Forte amassed the seventh most rushing yards in the league while also adding 477 yards receiving. For all Forte’s accomplishments though, the Bears still ranked a dismal 24th in rushing and 21st in passing. 

With Cutler under centre now, Forte may see a little extra space as opposing defenses will have to respect the deep ball.

The offensive line was restocked, as the team said goodbye to Terrence Metcalf and John St. Clair and welcomed Orlando Pace, Frank Omiyale and Kevin Shaffer into the mix. In Pace, C Olin Kreutz and RG Roberto Garza, the Bears will have three starters in their thirties, so keeping this group healthy and fresh will be a priority.

A defense which remained strong versus the rush, ranking fifth, yet poor versus the pass, ranking 30th, will return essentially the same group as last year.  The only major noteworthy additions are LB Pisa Tinoisamoa and FS Josh Bullocks.

Obviously the secondary must improve, but the once vaunted D is slowly on the decline.  This group will see a few faces move into their 30s and many more enter the 2009 season coming off poor performances in 2008.  This is no longer the feared group of defenders that lost in the Super Bowl not too long ago, and a 29th ranking in sacks is further evidence.

The schedule makers were very kind to the Bears in 2009, as they have been blessed with the league’s easiest schedule.  Chicago will only play six teams with winning records from last year and their combined opponent’s records from ’08 is only 105-149-2.  Chicago also avoids playing any teams coming off a bye and only has to play two games off short weeks of rest.

There’s a very real chance Brett Favre could un-retire again and steal the spotlight away from Cutler in the NFC North, but for the time being Cutler has the chance to be the star of this division. 

While having the Lions on your schedule twice will certainly contribute to an easy schedule ranking, there are definitely enough winnable games for the Bears in ’09.  That being said, teams can improve quickly in the NFL and many of their opponents will probably be better than their 2008 records would imply. I believe Chicago has many great pieces in place, however, collectively, I think they are on the decline. 

The window is far from shut though, and getting over this win total for at least another 9-7 season or better looks manageable.

Prediction:  Over 8.5 wins

 

Minnesota:  No Line Yet

As of the time of this writing, there has still been no number set for the Vikings for a season win total, which has to be because of the uncertainty of the status of Brett Favre. 

Given that Minnesota is favored to win this division at +162, followed very nearly by the Bears at +188, and taking into consideration the Bears over/under is 8.5 and the Packers is 9, my best guess would say the Vikings number should be about 9.5. 

Should Favre be deemed fit enough for NFL competition and the worst kept secret becomes a reality with him joining the Vikes, I could see the number rising to anywhere from 10-11 wins.

After stumbling out of the gate last season at 1-3, the Vikings proceeded to only lose three more games all year to finish with a 10-6 record and the NFC North division crown.  Much of their success could be attributed to their strong finish to the year, winning five of their final six games. 

Home field advantage didn’t prove to be enough though in the playoffs, as Minnesota bowed out early in the Wildcard round losing 26-14 to the Eagles.

The Vikings are a squad that’s most likely only a couple small pieces away from a championship-caliber team. 

They boast quite possibly the strongest 1-2 punch of running backs in the league in Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor, a serviceable WR corps which added rookie Percy Harvin through the draft, and the top-ranked rush defense, which also has the ability to put opposing QBs in the dirt on every play.

Management decided to change very little this offseason, making no major additions save swapping out backup QB Gus Frerotte for ex-Texan backup Sage Rosenfels.  It will be a battle all training camp as to whether Rosenfels or Tarvaris Jackson gets to start in 2009, however as mentioned earlier, that could all change if Brett Favre joins to the team for another kick at the can.

The Fave saga could be detrimental to the mental psyche of the QBs on the roster right now, as the Vikings very public interest in Favre is certainly not a glowing endorsement to the players they have. 

While the offensive line did a great job clearing space for the running game in ’08, they were 28th in allowing sacks and will potentially be breaking in two new starters in John Sullivan at centre and rookie Phil Loadholt at right tackle.

Other than improving the 25th-ranked passing offence, the major concern going into the season is the likely suspensions of both of Kevin and Pat Williams on the defensive line.  Tyrell Johnson did a decent job when called upon last year, and he will be taking over at safety for the departed Darren Sharper.

Minnesota’s opponents ranked middle of the of pack record-wise after the season ended in 2008, and this year three quarters of the NFC North will play the league’s easiest schedule.  Minnesota comes in at 31st, with Green Bay at 30th, and as mentioned earlier Chicago at 32nd.  Looking at their travel schedule, it may be one of the easiest in the league as well, as they only play one game outside of either the Central or Eastern time zones.

The Vikings haven’t improved at all over last year.  Even if Favre comes aboard, I don’t think he will be a huge upgrade under center.  This is a player who wore out during last season, will be 40 in October, threw just as many interceptions as touch downs, and hasn’t been able to fully practice as he recovers from a bicep surgery this offseason. 

Favre was not the answer in New York and one year later, I don’t see any different scenario playing out in Minnesota.  It’s hard to make a prediction not knowing what the line will be, but given the uncertainly at QB, possible suspensions, new players on the o-line and the upgrades their division rivals have made, making a strong case for the Vikes seems difficult.

Prediction:  I will go out on a limb and say the Vikes regress, and would bet the Under, if the line is 9 or higher.

 

Green Bay:  9

A quick 2-0 start and a 4-3 record going into their bye in Week Eight had the Packers in a position to do some damage moving into the second half of the season.  Unfortunately

Green Bay was only able to win two of their remaining nine games, and only one of their last six, with the one win coming in their season finale against the Lions.  The game was essentially meaningless for both teams in regards to the playoffs, except that Green Bay wanted to avoid being the only team to lose to the Lions in 2008.

If you look at the games Green Bay won, their 6-10 record looks even less impressive, as two of those wins came vs. the Lions and another vs. the 4-12 Seahawks.

As mentioned earlier, the Packers face the third easiest schedule this season, so the potential to improve upon last year and get closer to their 2007 record of 13-3 is definitely there. 

Travel-wise, their schedule also shapes up nicely with only one game played outside of the Central and Eastern time zones, and besides divisional games, they only play three teams on the road who had winning records last year: Tampa, Pittsburgh, and Arizona.

The biggest change this offseason was the hiring of Dom Capers as defensive coordinator and the switch to the 3-4 defense he will be implementing.  The change will hope to improve upon Green Bay’s 26th ranking versus the rush and 25th ranking in generating sacks. 

The secondary was respectable as they ranked 12th versus the pass.

No major changes were made to the roster, besides DT Colin Cole’s departure.  However, RT Mark Tauscher may not return as he suffered a major knee injury in tearing his ACL.  Several other players will be returning from injuries sustained during 2008, which could be enough to bring the Packers back to prominence.

Offensively, Aaron Rogers proved he could step up more than adequately in his first year as Brett Favre’s successor. He ranked third in the NFC in passing yards, TDs and QB rating. 

WR Greg Jennings should be motivated to improve upon his career highs in 2008 as he just signed a new, lucrative contract extension. However, running backs, namely Ryan Grant, will have to do more than the four touchdowns they managed last season.

The NFC North should be a tightly contested division all year as, in my opinion, the Packers, Vikings and Bears don’t give up much between them.  Their difficulty of schedules are all about the same and each have their own question marks heading into the year. 

In the NFL you are never as good or as bad as your record may indicate from one year to the next, and I think that may be the case with this year’s edition of the Packers.  Sure they switched from Favre to Rogers in 2008, but Rogers was not responsible for the seven-win slide the team took. 

The schedule shapes up nicely and there’s enough talent in Green Bay to make a decent improvement.

Prediction:  Over 9 wins

 

Best bet to win division:  Green Bay Packers at +200

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/188683-nfl-season-win-totals-betting-the-nfc-west

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/194389-nfl-season-win-totals-betting-the-nfc-east

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/201350-nfc-south-betting-the-nfl-season-win-totals

 

 

 

Brett Favre: Inductee to The Hall Of Shame

When I look at the picture above, I think to myself, “Yeah Brett, what the Hell are you doing to the NFL and it’s fans?”  The answer is simple: Ticking them off.

As I searched for pictures of Brett Favre in a Packers jersey, it reminded me much of what he actually has become in Green Bay: An afterthought.  Aaron Rodgers is the present and future, and although Brett brought a Lombardi trophy back to Wisconsin, I believe he’ll never get his respect back.

Recent ESPN fetishes for Favre have showed that he wants to play again in 2009, not for the Jets, nor the Pack, but for the Vikings?  Any Kraft cheese helmet wearing fan’s jaw dropped at this abomination of a report.  Sure it was in the works last year, and it has been a possibility this entire offseason, but for it to manifest in to truth would be unfathomable, like Phil Mickelson actually sinking a meaningful putt or Dane Cook actually telling a joke he wrote.

Fans are telling Brett to do what Rosie O’Donnell should’ve done years ago, which would be to let it go and quit already.  Where’s Donald Trump when you need him?

As a general fan of football, I would be OK with Barry Sanders, Daryle Lamonica, or Jack Kemp making a comeback and coming out of retirement, but Brett, we’ve seen it before, and you’re done.  Going to the enemy will further sully your career and make you more hated than the $5.00 footlong commercials.

Sure, Brett still loves the game.  At soon to be 40-years-old, who wouldn’t love playing America’s favorite game?  It’s been done before, Brett, so please, ride off into the sunset rather than add to your career interception records.

If he comes back, expect another mediocre season and pure hatred in Lambeau, and an induction in to the, “Hall of Shame”.

Just Saying, Is All… | What Might Have Been for Brett Favre

Graceful exits are overrated.

Brett Favre can’t quit. He also can’t help it. Once upon a time, the ex-Packer might have ridden peacefully into a Green and Golden sunset—which would have been a happy ending for everyone but the ender himself.

Passion means doing what your heart suggests.

Pathology, on the other hand, means doing what your brain demands.

It’s not that I’m rooting for another comeback. There’s a fine line between a soap opera and a train wreck, and Favre’s legacy was in much better shape 16 months ago. But let’s not delude ourselves with wishful retrospection. In a league where every quarterback is limited by his playbook, it would have been silly to expect anything less than a go-for-broke audible from No. 4.

Faith is hope beyond logic.

Love is need beyond reason.

If Favre were able to make a clean break, he wouldn’t be the idol we’ve come to believe in.

Zealous champions always have trouble saying goodbye. Willie Mays, Michael Jordan, Jerry Rice—they were guilty of irrational ardor, of clinging to joy in defiance of common sense. The problem, of course, is that old dogs can’t unlearn their most meaningful tricks. Conventional wisdomites will argue that Favre should have known when to leave well enough alone. I’d counter that the all-time greats are ignorant of every truth except the only one that really matters.

Dignity is good.

Desire is better.

A lesser legend would have settled for pride, but Brett is Brett because he wants what he wants.

Human nature abhors a vacuum. To exist is to drift ever into darkness; to thrive is to rage against the retiring of the light. What might have been for Brett Favre is beside the point, because all that’s left is that which has to be. Every mortal is fated to lose his fight with eternity. The crazy one is at least sane enough to go down swinging.

Ernest Hemingway wasn’t shy about letting go, but he could still sympathize with folks more inclined to hang on:

“Oh Cheeseheads,” Brett said, “We could have had such a damned good time together.”

“Yes,” the Cheeseheads said. “Isn’t it pretty to think so?”

Which is as crisp a coda as any flawed hero could hope to write.

Because closing on a good note means having the balls to walk away, and those who claim to be unafraid of conclusions are either buried in Ketchum or only just saying, is all…

Brett Favre: What Will the Off-Season look like when he is truly gone?

Around the months of March through June, the NFL offseason goes through a hiatus of sorts. It’s a natural occurrence this time of year, and usually forces us football fans to span out and watch baseball, or observe the NBA and NHL drafts.

However, the past two seasons, NFL fans have been spoiled by the Brett Favre saga.

It has kept football fans with a strong grapple on the pulse of the NFL due to Favre’s “comebacks.” Implications of him coming back have changed team’s outlooks on the season and fan’s expectations of teams.

In 2008, the Jets came in with “playoffs or bust” expectations. Ironically enough, the Vikings of 2009 are in a “Super Bowl or bust” mode. With this set as the highest risk for both parties involved (Favre and the Vikings), there is no higher reason why he would want to return again…then again, we’ve all heard this song before.

But fortunately, science has taught us that players can only play so long before they literally will have nothing left in their bodies, and break down. In that sense, unless this surgery that Favre had on his arm makes it permanently immune to pain or exhaustion, 2009 will be his last year in the NFL.

With all joking aside, Favre has been a big influence on how the NFL offseason flows. Without Favre, the offseason is lifeless from draft to camp.

With that said, what will become of the period of time from March until July?

Terrell Owens is one of the more likely candidates to fulfill this role with age and persona. He also has the whole “crying during press conferences” down. However, without an NFL career record that automatically fulfills his role for the Hall of Fame, he won’t be as lucky to sign with many teams if Buffalo doesn’t work out.

Otherwise, the Michael Vick story may produce some steam. But like Owens, Vick comes with baggage and a personality of sorts. He could easily fill the role…if someone signs him first…and THEN he proves he’s still “got it.”

There’s Pacman Jones. Although, like Vick, someone will have to hire him first. But, his personality seems to make the biggest splash. It doesn’t help that his past sends a clear image of what their getting when a team signs him. Heck, Jerry Jones wouldn’t even put up with it in Dallas and he let Owens play there for three seasons.

Favre’s situation has seen imminent moves of late. Favre had surgery last month to help with his pain from his partially torn tendon in his throwing shoulder. The Vikings then recently sent a trainer down to evaluate Favre and his progress.

Favre has also had reports of purchasing hotel accommodations for his family in the Green Bay area the weekend the Vikings play at Lambeau. It’s also been reported the Brett purchased a house in Eden Prarie, Minnesota.

On top of all that, it’s been reported through WCCO, a local Minnesota radio/television station, that the Minnesota Vikings have ordered “Favre No. 4″ jerseys.

As such, it’s been assumed and reported through anonymous sources (I personally wonder who these “sources” are) that the Minnesota Vikings and Brett Favre have reached an agreement of terms in contract negotiations, despite Favre’s agent “Bus” Cook denying all rumors.

The rumors have also stretched to the point that it is assumed the Vikings already has Favre under an $8-to-10 million deal for the 2009 season. However, I’m not willing to bite on any of these lines that the media hands out until I see the press conference myself.

The madness is somehow intoxicating and frustrating, but what would we be doing otherwise? Watching a baseball team in interleague play? Watching the Stanley Cup playoffs? (actually wait…scratch that)

For crying out loud, the only other highlights we get from football this time of year are comments from retired players about how our generation has plummeted. For that, I believe the NFL should send Favre a card to express their gratitude for all the attention in their quietest moments of the year.

Then again…NFLPA contract hasn’t been done yet…he could still back out… then again…yeah right…

Green Bay Locks Up Greg Jennings With Extension

Greg Jennings is now one of the NFL’s highest paid WR’s.

ESPN has just reported that a contract has been finalized that will pay him $27 million in “new money” through 2012.

The contract calls for roughly $16 million in guarantees.

In comparison, top Free Agent WR TJ Houshmandzadeh got about $1 million less from the Seattle Seahawks in annual salary then Jennings is receiving.

Extending Jennings keeps intact one of the top WR combos in the NFL along with Donald Driver. Driver has topped the 1,000 yard mark six times over the past seven seasons.

Jennings’ was set to become a Free Agent after the 2009 season and likely would have garnered an even larger contract on the open market.

 

Future Breaking Brett Favre News From ESPN

After staking out Brett Favre in his living quarters at the Vikings training camp, ESPN reporter Chris Mortensen has filed this report on his networks website:

9 PM : Brett calls his wife and asks which bag did she pack his codeine and Seconal.

9:15 PM : Brett takes eight pills from three unmarked prescription bottles, and chases it down with a glass of “special” water curiously kept in a Absolout Vodka bottle.

9:32 PM : Brett feels and itch on his butt and scratches it. His arm appears OK.

9:43 – 11:27 PM : Brett text messages 1,296 of his media friends for a minute by minute update report on what he thinks and feels.

11:28 PM : Brett sneezes, coughs, then burps. His arm still appears OK.

11:29 PM : Brett masturbates.

11:30 PM : Brett finishes masturbating. His arm still appears OK.

11:31 PM : I read Brett his favorite story not about him = “The Little Engine That Could”

11:46 PM : Brett and I kiss good night.

11:47 PM – 6:14 AM : Brett sleeps. He rolls around five times, but his arm still appears OK.

6:15 AM : Brett awakens to my beaming face. Gosh, is he beautiful!

6:16 AM : I draw Brett’s bubble bath, and put his favorite rubber ducky in it.

6:18 AM : Brett comes into the bathroom and stares at himself in the mirror.

6:41 AM : Brett stops looking at himself for a minute to locate his toothbrush.

6:57 AM : Brett starts to brush his teeth, spending three seconds on each tooth.

6:59 AM : Brett finishes brushing his teeth. His arm still appears OK.

7:00 AM : ESPN takes his spit out toothpaste, and packages it for display in the ESPN front lobby at Bristol, CT.

7:01 AM : Brett sits on a toilet specially designed by ESPN.

7:02 AM : Brett drops 14 ounces of offerings. It’s fairly solid, light brown, and tastes like he had eaten broiled salmon a few days ago. His arm still appears OK.

7:06 AM : I wipe Brett’s sphincter happily, and package the used toilet paper so it can be displayed in the ESPN front lobby at Bristol, CT along with his offering.

7:12 AM : Brett steps into his bath and soaks. His arm still appears OK.

7:56 AM : I wash and rinse Brett, then dry off his body. Gosh, is he beautiful!

8:06 AM : I dress Brett in his favorite outfit, then walk him to the teams cafeteria to eat breakfast.

8:14 AM : We sit at Brett’s table, which is sectioned off from the rest of the team.

8:15 AM : Brett consumes eight scrambled eggs, two pieces of plain toast, and three glasses of grape juice. His arm still appears OK.

8:18 AM : I burp Brett. Gosh, is he beautiful!

8:20 AM : Sal Paolantonio takes Brett for the day. His arm still appears OK.

8:21 AM : Though I REALLY miss Brett, I must type up this report. I cannot wait to see him later tonight.

8:59 AM : As I complete this report, Chris Berman calls me to tell me that ESPN is trying to get Roger Goodell to implement a rule where non-media is not allowed to touch, or speak to Brett. This especially applies to games.

9:07 AM : I get informed by George Bodenheimer, ESPN’s current president, that the Brett Favre statues being built on the inside of all offices and homes of ESPN employees, will be completed by this weekend. They will then put statues in the front and back yards of all ESPN employees offices and homes by Tuesday.

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