A Bull Market: The Truth Behind the Rise and Fall of NFL Players’ Preseason Stock

We have reached the preseason for 2009, and many players have already rose or depleted their stock so far. In the midst of many storylines that make us salivate more than ever for the start of the regular season, some players have emerged to make their upcoming season look promising.

In contrast, many players have disappointed so far and need to regain form to enter the season on a high cloud. It may be early, but these players have stood out for the right, and wrong reasons.

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Minnesota Vikings: Five Vikings On The Bubble in 2009

Both of these struggling quarterbacks are fighting for their NFL careers. Both have proven that they have the tools, but have also proven they lack the know-how to lead an offense with consistency.

Tarvaris Jackson is the incumbent of the position, but due to inconsistent and questionable play-calling that he may not be in a position to stay in consideration for much longer.

With now three seasons under his belt, he’s gotten more then enough playing experience to be able to prove himself. With that aside, he has shown improvement, but is his ceiling coming soon, or has he already met it?

His completion percentage is a solid 58% in those three seasons with 20 touchdowns. However, his 137.7 yards a game is nothing short of disappointing. His discomfort in the pocket is highly documented along with his 41 sacks in his career which has led him to his 18 interceptions and his 13 fumbles (7 fumbles lost).

Sage however isn’t just playing for a starting job. After his eight years of being a backup in the NFL (four in Miami, three in Houston) Sage hasn’t been able to prove himself as viable quarterback since being drafted as the fourth-round pick by Redskins in 2001.

Rosenfels has shown shades of brilliance, yet he still is blemished by games of selfish play-calling that is considered overly-aggressive in games that rightfully should be “babied” until the end. (i.e. 2007 season, Houston vs Baltimore with 4 touchdowns, 3 interceptions. Lost 38-36 despite having the lead for 80% of the game).

This year may prove to be Rosenfels last unless he can prove his legitimacy as a quarterback in the NFL as a starter.

His statistics are decent at best with 62.5% completion percentage throughout his career, and averaging 187.1 yards a game in 2007 and 238.5 in 2008. However his 22 interceptions between the two seasons overshadows his 21 touchdowns and 65% completion percentage.

With both QB’s fighting for their careers, it’s likely that one of them will fall and may never again have a chance to start in the NFL. Then again, stranger things have happened.

2009 NFL Team Rankings: 7-13

7. Minnesota Vikings- after a debate between the Vikes the Bears and the Pack I decided the Vikes because of.

Adrian Peterson- Do I really have to go on?

Defense- Against the run I shouldn’t even have to say anything but against the pass they weren’t the best but either way their offense should more than make up for it with a lethal and highly underrated wide receiving corps

There are some questions about QB but they should do good enough to manage the game.

11-5 with a wild card playoff berth

8. Green bay Packers- Yes the NFC North is going to have 2 playoff teams this year. I’ll show you why

Aaron Rodgers- In his first full year as a starter he threw for 4000+ yards with 28 TD’s 

Ryan Grant- He finally took the full load and got 1200+ yards but only 4 TD’s

WR’s- Greg Jennings was a great WR last year but Donald Driver is getting up there in age.

9. New York Giants- Some people will say I am overrating them and some may say I am underrating them but I put them at number 9 because of

Eli Manning- Say what you want about him being overrated but he does what a quarterback does and he wins games.

Brandon Jacobs- Again say what you want about him losing Derrick Ward but he does what a running back does and he gets you touchdowns. In fact he got 15 in 13 games last year.

9-7 while missing out on the playoffs narrowly

10. Houston Texans- I have them as one of 4 bounce back teams for this year and I have them taking the crown of the AFC south. Let me break it down for you.

Matt Schuab- When this guy is healthy you are really not going to fare well. 3000+ yards when missing 6 games? he averaged more than 300 yards per game that’s enough said.

Andre Johnson- He is just a complete beast he led the league in everything but TD’s. He is better than or identical than the “magical” Larry Fitzgerald.

Steve Slaton- He put up 1282 yards in his ROOKIE season which is very impressive. He also benefits from teams having to double team Andre Johnson while Owen Daniels and Kevin Walter have to be covered also.

11-5 with a wild card berth losing to the Chargers in the wild card

11. Baltimore Ravens- After a great 2008 Joe Flacco is looking to avoid the sophomore slump. Why will he? Because of this.

Running attack- Individually this running group just sucks. When put together these 3 people can really bring some numbers. Ray Rice,Willis McGahee, and Leron McLain are good together because McGahee is injury prone.

Defense- Many say this defense carried the team and I would be fine with that as long as they can use their strength to get to the promised land. This defense is top 5 for sure and will be for the next few years.

The WR’s are the Ravens biggest weakness but Flacco is in a run first offense so he will not be asked to put up great numbers.

10-6 with a wild card berth

12. Indianapolis Colts- The Indianapolis Colts have had many greats this decades and still have many but they are now on the decline of a great decade. They will still make the playoffs because of-

Peyton Manning- The official definition of consistent is Peyton Manning. He has never thrown for less than 4000 yards since his rookie season. But that will change this year where he will drop to 3850 yards. Did I also mention he was MVP last year?

WR’s- They have Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzales and Dallas Clark as their TE. Reggie Wayne is highly underrated and one of the best. Anthony Gonzales is going to have a breakout year and Dallas Clark is a great TE.

Their biggest weakness is RB. Joseph Addai has been a dissapointment so far execpt for 2007. Donald Brown shows potential but Joseph is only 25 and will get the work load.

Best Defensive Linemen Not In the Pro Football Hall of Fame

Our position-by-position look at the best eligible players not in the Pro Football Hall of Fame now shifts from offense to defense as we look at the best defensive linemen who have not yet earned a bust in Canton.

From Art Donovan, Deacon Jones and Ben Davidson to Bubba Smith, Mark Gastineau, and Michael Strahan, NFL history is filled with charismatic defensive linemen who were recognized not just for their talent, but also for their showmanship and flamboyance.

Defensive line units have also regularly been fan favorites with names such as “Doomsday”, “The Fearsome Foursome”, “The Purple Gang” and “The Steel Curtain.”

Defensive linemen have also been well respected by Hall of Fame voters, as the position is second only to the offensive line in the number of modern era players enshrined in the Hall.

However, much like offensive linemen, because statistics are inconsistent and tell only a part of the story, ensuring that the most deserving defensive linemen are inducted is a tough challenge.

Though some recognition was given to the sack as far back as the 1960s and sack leaders were printed on Topps football cards in the 1970s, the sack wasn’t recognized as an official statistic until 1982.

This provides a challenge for some of the best defensive linemen of the 1960s and 1970s who were known for their pass-rushing ability, but don’t have the same “numbers” to show for their prowess as players of the last three decades.

There are, of course, also great defensive linemen who were primarily run stuffers and didn’t have impressive stat totals, regardless of whether they played prior to or after the sack became a recognized stat.

In selecting the best defensive linemen not in the Hall of Fame, I looked at the individual statistics of post-1982 candidates, but also looked at overall team defensive prowess for players from all eras.

I also analyzed how each candidate compared to players of their own era in regard to Pro Bowl and All-Pro selections.

Selecting the top 10, and event the best 25, was quite a challenge as there are many great defensive linemen who have yet to receive the call from Canton, but who were regular participants in the Pro Bowl or key performers on championship teams.

One player who ended up being ranked much lower on the list than one might expect is former Viking Jim Marshall.

At the time of his retirement, Marshall had played in more games than any other player in NFL history. On the famous “Purple Gang” that included Hall of Famers Carl Eller and Alan Page, Marshall was generally considered to be equal to those two greats.

However, when comparing his credentials with those of other similar defenders, Marshall surprisingly didn’t stack up. He participated in only two Pro Bowls and was never an All-Pro.

In addition, Marshall famously was man handled by a variety of offensive linemen in the four Super Bowl appearances for the Vikings.

Despite being eligible for the HOF for 25 years, Marshall has been a finalist only once, in 2004.

So, here is my list of the top 10 eligible defensive linemen not in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. I look forward to your comments, discussion, and disagreements.

The Top Five: Best Running Backs in the NFL

The running back position is in the midst of a huge shift.

One guy can no longer carry the entire load of an offense’s running game throughout a 16—game season. Defenses have gotten too big and fast, and the sustained pounding that one guy takes can effectively end his career.

Larry Johnson, for instance, has not been heard from since the season in which he carried the ball over 400 times. The beating that he took during that season still weighs him down, severely limiting his effectiveness.

Still, even with the increasingly popular running back tandems, there are certain guys who stand out from the crowd by doing it better than everyone else.

I’m a master of brilliant segues.

 

5. Brian Westbrook (Philadelphia Eagles)

78 games started, 5,721 rushing yards, 36 TDs, 4.6 YPC, 401 receptions, 3,609 receiving yards, 9 YPR, 28 TDs, 9,330 scrimmage yards, 64 total TDs, 2-time Pro Bowler and 1-time All-Pro

Westbrook is considered by some as the ultimate weapon.

He can hurt you on the ground, he can hurt you in the passing game, and let’s not forget that he’s one of the best pass-blocking backs in the game. He’s an all-around fantastic running back.

In fact, over the past few years, he’s the only player with 4,000 yards rushing and 3,000 yards receiving.

Yet he has never played in more than 15 games during a season and doesn’t take that much of a beating.

He’s not an up-the-middle kind of runner, and is extremely elusive which allows him to prevent taking the big hit, yet he’s always hurt. It could speak to the guy’s work ethic, but everyone in Philadelphia swears that he’s one of the hardest working guys on the team, so maybe it’s just bad luck.

Either way, the reason that Westbrook is this low is that his vision in between the tackles is below standard. A lot of times you’ll see him run into a pile when there’s a perfect lane just one cut-move to his right or left.

In space, he may be the best back in the league, however he’s less effective when it comes to “moving in a phone booth,” as they say.

 

4. LaDainian Tomlinson (San Diego Chargers)

127 games started, 11,760 rushing yards, 126 TDs, 4.4 YPC, 510 receptions, 3,801 yards, 7.5 YPR, 15 TDs, 15,561 scrimmage yards, 141 total touchdowns, 5-time Pro Bowler and 3-time All-Pro

Personally, I don’t understand all of the criticism that L.T. has received over the past several months.

If you look at his body of work, he’s astounding. He’s missed one game, which was back in 2004, and has never rushed for less than 1,000 yards in any year since coming into the league eight years ago. He also completes at least 10 rushing touchdowns in a season, as well as a minimum 300 receiving yards.

Even last year, that everyone says was so terrible, was a decent year for any running back.

1,110 yards rushing, 11 TDs, 52 receptions, 426 yards, and a touchdown. The only bad part about last season was his 3.8 YPC, which admittedly is weak, but it’s also not bad considering he played through the entire season with nagging injuries.

If L.T. can put up those kind of numbers while playing hurt, coming back healthy this season should scare any defense unlucky enough to face him.

 

3. Michael Turner (Atlanta Falcons)

17 games started, 2,956 rushing yards, 23 TDs, 4.9 YPC, 17 receptions, 112 receiving yards, 6.6 YPR, 3,068 scrimmage yards, 23 total touchdowns, 1-time Pro Bowler and 1-time All-Pro

Michael “The Burner” Turner finally got a chance to emerge from the shadow of the great LaDainian Tomlinson and show the league what he can do.

Apparently, he can do a lot.

In his first season as a starter, Turner was able to rack up almost 1,700 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns, while earning a Pro Bowl nod and being selected to the All-Pro team.

He’s not much of a receiver out of the backfield, which is why the Falcons have Jerious Norwood, but it’s fine because Turner makes up for it on the ground.

Just like Adrian Peterson (expect to see that name again) he can plow a guy over, or run away from a defensive back. His speed is unbelievable for a guy who is closing in on 240 pounds, the size of most fullbacks.

Look for Turner to continue his success and become a mainstay in discussions like these, and in the Pro Bowl/All-Pro clubs.

 

2. DeAngelo Williams (Carolina Panthers)

18 games started, 2,733 rushing yards, 23 TDs, 5.1 YPC, 78 receptions, 609 receiving yards, 7.8 YPR, 4 TDs, 3,342 scrimmage yards, 27 total touchdowns

If there ever was a Pro Bowl snub, this guy is it.

Coming off a year in which he ran for over 1,500 yards and accounted for 18 touchdowns on the ground, DeAngelo Williams missed the Pro Bowl.

By the way, last season was his first as a full-time starter.

Williams showed the speed, quickness, agility, and vision needed to be a running back in today’s NFL. He could make even the best of corners and safeties look foolish in the open field, while also using his 5’8″ 210—pound frame to barrel over the biggest linebackers.

He and Jonathan Stewart combined for perhaps the best running back tandem in the league, but a lot of Stewart’s success could be attributed to Williams’ intimidation of opponents.

In a few years, expect Williams to draw comparisons to guys like L.T. and Brian Westbrook in their early days, if he isn’t already.

 

1. Adrian Peterson (Minnesota Vikings)

24 games started, 3,101 rushing yards, 22 TDs, 5.2 YPC, 40 receptions, 393 receiving yards, 9.8 YPR, 1 TD, 3,494 scrimmage yards, 23 total touchdowns, 2-time Pro Bowler and 1-time All-Pro

This pick is a no-brainer, and I’m not sure that there’s a journalist out there willing to stake their reputation on not putting this guy as No. 1.

He’s an absolutely unbelievable talent. He can become a power runner if that’s what you need, or he can run away from you in the open field and make the entire defensive secondary look like high school kids.

He’s already drawing comparisons to guys like Earl Campbell and Jim Brown, and merits every one.

He’s a nightmare for defenses and is already setting records in the NFL. For instance, in his rookie season he broke Jamal Lewis’ mark of 295 rushing yards in a single game by rushing for 296 yards against the San Diego Chargers.

Yes, in his rookie season.

This kid will only get better, and while he does have some things to work on, he should have no problem being remembered as one of the greats when his time is up.

Which, unfortunately for the rest of the league, isn’t for quite some time.

 

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